Friday, January 02, 2009
Mixed emotions for the dry bulk industry
Friday, 02 January 2009
At the beginning of 2008 nobody could have predicted what would happen in the freight market from September onwards. The first quarter was marked with a sluggish activity, mainly due to severe weather conditions in many parts of the world which are key to the dry bulk shipping industry. The second quarter was a pleasant surprise for everybody almost up until the Olympic Games of Beijing. The market’s rally was almost unprecedented, with the BDI having reached by the end of May all-time highs of 11,793 points. Euphoria was the main sentiment, new building orders kept their pace – albeit at lower numbers than 2007 – and everybody was looking with impatience for the course of demand by September and until the end of the year. The prevailing scenario at the time was expecting a market correction, mainly from the beginning of 2009, when tonnage supply would pick up on the heels of a hefty orderbook.
Lehman’s bankruptcy on mid-September was the spark for the fire we’ve experienced until this day, leading the world economy in recession. Shipping has succumbed to an outside “disease” ending the year in crisis, with all predictions being pointless. Since the market highs achieved in May and June, time charter averages for the four main bulk sectors have lost between 91% and 96% of their value. Capes have suffered the most and now stand at 4% of their June peak (against 5%, 7% and 9% for Panamax, Supramax and Handysize).
Underlying trade figures demonstrate why: from June to the last recorded month of October global steel production volumes dropped 15% to 100m tonnes, while China’s output fell nearly a quarter to 36m tonnes. Commodity prices have come under pressure and this week thermal coal exporter Xstrata Plc settled its contracts with Japanese utilities for 2009 at $80 per ton, compared to US$125 per ton last year.
Amidst the gloom we can find a few positive elements. In the shipbuilding sector, owners have been quick to react. In the first quarter of 2008, nearly 320 ships were ordered. However in the final quarter of the year, just six ships have been contracted. This combined with the picking up of scrapping activity for older tonnage, as well as ship lay-ups has restricted tonnage supply, as ship owners are looking to revive the market in any way possible. The first few months of 2009 will be crucial for many shipping companies, as they will struggle to make ends meet. Let’s hope for the best and for a swift pick-up of the world economy, as this will prove to be the catalyst for a similar growth of the world trade, together with the return of the global banking system to normal activity.
0 comments:
Post a Comment