Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Imarex Brief Jan 20th 2009
Tankers
Crude
VLCC AG/East 67 (TCE $70k/day) slightly softer
Suezmax Wafr/Usac 80 (TCE $39k/day) slightly firmer
Turkish Straits Delays 2n / 2 s same, though expected to increase
Jan liftings are just about covered at 98 – with the Feb tally up to 16. The flurry of activity has
slowed as we head into Holidays in the East. We are still facing the same conflicted market as
last week: which factor will carry more weight – OPEC cuts or VLCC storage? Our vessel count
for storage has reached about 35 – a significant number, though 10 vsls or so lower than other
estimates. Since it seems the market is in “balance”, we are willing to assume that the storage
issue has won the day over the OPEC cuts. Also worth noting is the presence of relet tonnage
from some of the Oil majors. Seems bearish – especially in light of the potential contango trade
mentioned above. The recent V strength in the Atl basin has allowed Suezmax rates to bump up
once again.
Crude FFAs have seen less than moderate volumes. Prices remain flat. TD3 Feb and March
trade unchanged at 61 and 51. Q3 also trades at yesterday’s level of 41.
Clean
37kt Cont/Usac 105 ($10.5k/day) firmer
38kt Caribs/Usac 110 ($11k/day) softer
55kt AG/East 85 ($15k/day) softer
The Atlantic basin has seen Cont/ta pick up, while the Caribs has slid further. Once again,
simple supply/demand at work. USG export cgos are still seen on the requirements list – though
not to the point where they provide support to the Caribs mkt. Seems that mogas prices are on
the rise in the US. A few weeks back, we saw Houston prices down to $1.42 or so – and now we
see them back up to $1.69. Refinery maintenance is reported to be providing support in the face
of suspect demand. In the East – the market is “soft and softer” – as routes for MRs and Lrs both
continue their measured slide.
Clean FFAs are trading up for TC2 on fair volume. Jan, Feb and March all trade up 3-5 points to
121,133 and 137. Hope remains!. In the East, volumes are also fair, though prices trade down.
TC5 Feb and March both lose about 5 points each to 105 and 116.
Dry Bulk
Baltic Indices
BDI 872 up 4
BCI 1719 up 10
BPI 494 up 2
BSI 427 up 3
BHSI 283 down 2
Though we had seen some slowing of Cape demand towards the end of last – it appears that
enough activity still exists to keep rates flat for today. Sentiment is still mixed as we approach
holidays in the East. Panamaxes in the East remain abundant on the position lists – limiting the
extent of any rate surge until further notice. Henrik With reports that Chinese ore inventories
were up slightly last week to 59m mt.
Dry Bulk FFAs
Contract Close Current Diff
======================================
BDI Feb 875 885 -10
BDI Q2 1000 1050 -50
BDI Q3 1350 1425 -75
CS4 Q1 $13,880 $14,125 +$245
CS4 Cal 09 $18,294 $18,875 +$581
PM4 Q1 $6,058 $6,250 +$192
PM4 Cal 09 $10,043 $10,500 +$457
SM6 Q1 $6,180 $6,000 -$180
SM6 Cal09 $8,611 $8,750 +$139
Volumes have been fair as we see FFA prices for Capes and Panamaxes push up a touch. There
is still vast uncertainty as to what is in store for this market.
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