Shipping to emerge from crisis 'sooner rather than later'

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Andrew Spurrier, Paris - Thursday 4 December 2008

THE world, and shipping with it, will emerge from the current global economic crisis “sooner rather than later”, according to Italian Federation of the Sea and Fincantieri chairman Corrado Antonini. 
But he warned at the same time that greater pain still lay ahead on the grounds that the crisis had probably still not reached its lowest point 
Mr Antonini indicated that he was expecting emerging economies to play a locomotive role in enabling the world economy to emerge from the crisis. 
Several billion people had entered the “cycle of development” in recent years, he said, and were not ready to return to the previous less prosperous position. 
The growth of their economies would be substantially reduced – from double figures to 4%-5% - but would continue. 
“It is still a huge amount in absolute terms,” he told the fourth Assizes of the Maritime Economy in the French port city of Le Havre. 
“I think and hope that this will help the global economy to overcome the crisis sooner rather than later.”
But he predicted that the crisis would probably get deeper before it started to get better. 
“One month ago, it was not as bad as it is today,” he said. “Probably the situation tomorrow will be worse than today. It is going to be extremely difficult.” 
He was optimistic nevertheless about the prospects for shipping in the medium term. 
“If you look at the medium term,” he said, “globalisation is here to stay and shipping is the way in which globalisation will be realised.” 
Mr Antonini, who was taking part in a round table discussion on the future of European shipbuilding, was less optimistic about prospects for shipbuilders, pointing to the difficulties currently being experienced by the industry in a number of European countries. 
He was optimistic, nevertheless, about the cruise sector, on which major builders like Fincantieri are heavily dependent. 
He said that, despite the economic crisis, he believed that consumers would be reluctant to give up their cruise holidays, which he argued offered the “best value for money’ in terms of vacations. 
“In my opinion, in moments of crisis, people will give up many things but they will probably not give up their three, four or five days of relaxation in the year,” he said. 
The consequences of the crisis on cruise companies and cruise ship builders would vary according to the individual situations of the companies concerned, he said, adding that some builders would need fresh orders early in the New Year. 
Earlier, he had said that he did not see any immediate threat from Asian yards to European positions in cruise ship building. The Korean yards; which presented the most immediate threat, still did not have the networks of sub-contractors which were necessary for this activity and which European yards had built over many years. 
“I believe that, for the time being, this threat is not so imminent,” he said. 
He revealed that he had been confirmed in this view by a recent meeting with STX group chairman Kang Duk Soo, who had told him that he did not think that cruise ship building was suited to Korean mass production methods. 
Mr Kang, whose group recently took over Norway’s Aker Yards, had explained that, in taking over the European yard, he had been looking to break into the cruise market using a different route from that of his Korean competitors.