Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Imarex Brief 10th December 2008
Dry Bulk
BDI 691 up 12
BCI 1058 up 67
BPI 450 down 16
BSI 511 down 12
BHSI 300 up 2
Increased Cape activity has allowed the BCI to continue its slow uptrend. We are a long way from the
days of Bud 40s and punchbowls – but the current market mindset has clearly changed. There are a lot
of little factors that have played into this – but they all, for the most part – point to better times. Just how
much better is not for me to guess – but at least some of the recent doom and gloom can be put in the
cooler for a few days.
Dry Bulk FFAs
Contract Close Current Diff
======================================
BDI Dec 825 850 +25
BDI Q1 1525 1550 +25
BDI Q2 1925 1950 +25
CS4 Q1 $11,063 $12,000 +$937
CS4 Cal 09 $16,469 $18,000 +$1531
PM4 Q1 $9,765 $9,650 -$106
PM4 Cal 09 $12,109 $12,250 +$141
SM6 Q1 $8,406 $8,350 +$56
SM6 Cal09 $10,148 $10,000 +$148
Volumes are still light, though the price surge continues. Seems that a lack of short sellers has allowed
rates to jump on limited activity – but, a lack of sellers is an indication in itself that optimism is increasing
(or at very least that pessimism is decreasing). If you have any doubts – a quick look at DRYS, EXM and
the other dry bulk names should confirm that the outlook is infinitely different from last week.
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