Fearnleys Weekly 26th November 2008

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CHARTERING
Handy
Another quiet week in Asia, although Thailand seems to be having more
serious political problems. Piracy is a common part of any shipping
conversation nowadays and we are seeing Owners circulating vessels
excluding business that involves sailing via the Gulf of Aden. On a positive
note it seems more iron ore is moving out of India and rumours that a
Supermax has secured usd 11,000 for a trip WC India to China. From EC
India one voyage fixture has been concluded at usd 9.75 pmt basis N China
discharge. SE Asian positions remain under pressure with a 56,000 dwt
fixing usd 4,500 basis dely Thailand for a trip via Indonesia redly SE Asia.
On the smaller sizes 35,000 mt of ferts has been fixed at usd 10.00 for
Aqaba/WC India and a 29,000 dwt has fixed ex N China trip to Yangoon at
usd 5,500. Supermax period remains in the low teens for 1 year with
charterers seeking tonnage willing optional years but it is tough to find
Owners on such terms at present.
Panamax
The market continued very badly, with just a few new cargoes in the
market. In the Atlantic r/v`s fixed arnd 5-6,000 and trips to the Pacific were
paid around 9,500. In the Pacific, rates for r/v`s fell usd 1,500, to usd 5,500,
and backhauls down usd 1,000 to arnd 5,000. The little premium paid for
period last week seems to be vanished, and we estimate 1 year T/C now for
LME is about usd 14,000. vs usd 15,500/16,000 last week.
Capesize
There is still a general lack of activity and the index continues to fall. The
index has been lagging behind and, until now, the index has merely been
catching up with the physical market. Today the market has taken a turn for
the worse, with a modern Caper having fixed usd 1,000 for a Transatlantic
round voyage and a similar unit fixing usd 5,750 for a front haul with a
ballast bonus that does not cover the ballast costs. In the Pacific, India has
seized the opportunity to sell some ore and several fixtures have been
reported. On steam coal, Korea is the only light we see with MoM volumes
up by over 13%, though this only benefits the smaller Capesize vessels due
to port restrictions at discharge port.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capesize Panamax Handysize
Slow Low Low
RATES
CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne)
This Week Last Week Low 2008 High 2008
TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt) 6,000 7,000 6,000 285,000
Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 5.00 5.20 5.00 58.50
Queensland/ R.dam (Coal) 10.00 10.20 10.00 69.00
PANAMAX
Transatlantic RV 5,150 6,300 5,150 110,000
TCT Cont / F. East 9,300 11,000 9,300 116,000
TCT F. East / Cont 5,100 6,000 2,500 71,000
TCT F. East RV 6,500 8,100 3,500 79,500
Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 5.00 5.25 5.00 35.00
Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc 5.25 5.50 5.25 36.50
Murmansk/Rotterdam and Murmansk/Liverpool rates calculations are always based on
Wednesday´s Baltic TARV index value as reported
HANDYSIZE
Atlantic RV 8,000 9,000 6,500 94,750
Pacific RV 6,000 4,500 3,000 60,750
TCT Cont / F. East 7,500 9,000 7,500 86,250
1 YEAR T/C (usd per day)
Capesize 150,000 dwt 14,500 15,500 14,500 154,000
Capesize 170,000 dwt 18,000 19,000 18,000 170,000
Panamax 75,000 dwt 14,000 15,000 14,000 84,000
Handysize 53,000 dwt 10,000 10,500 10,000 63,500
Baltic Dry Index (BDI): This Week: 763 Last week: 859
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.
Pacific Island 54,300 2008 Japanese 33.50 4/30cr
Jag Rishi 41,093 1984 Chinese 4.10 4/25cr
Alfie 40,864 1986 Chinese 4.80 5/25cr
Ally II 34,503 1977 Undisclosed 6.00 4/15cr
Lepetane 26,771 1984 Undisclosed 2.50 4/20cr SS due