OPEC Exports In 4 Weeks To Apr 4 Seen -770,000 B/D

Technorati Tags: Baltic Dry Index,Baltic Dry Indices,Ship Chartering,Shipchartering,Voyage Fixtures,Time Charter Fixtures,Panamax,Capesize,Handymax,Handysize,Supramax,Dry Cargo Fixtures,Bulk Cargo Fixtures,Baltic Exchange,Freight Review,Maritime Baltic Index,TNT Freight Review,OPEC Cuts Export,Tanker Rates Down

Friday, 20 March 2009

Oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Angola and Ecuador, are forecast to decline by 770,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Apr. 4 compared with the previous four-week period, tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday. The sharp decline in exports reflects OPEC's determination to trim supplies and counteract a sharp slowdown in consumption, particularly in the recession- hit economies of the U.S. and Europe.
Shipments from the 10 OPEC members tracked by the U.K.-based consultancy are expected to fall to 22.41 million barrels a day in the four-week period to Apr. 4, compared with 23.18 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Mar. 7.
"Demand is leading in the first quarter" as the main factor depressing OPEC's exports, said Oil Movements' head Roy Mason.
OPEC opted at its latest summit Sunday to keep its production policy unchanged but pledged to adhere more strictly to three production cuts announced in late 2008.
OPEC's compliance with last year's output curbs stands at between 70% to 80%, Mason estimated.
But he warned that a slight rise in OPEC compliance in the coming weeks could cause a substantial, counter-seasonal contraction in oil supplies in the second quarter and shift the oil market's focus back to the supply side.
"We're going to switch from moderate surplus to deficit" if OPEC continues to keep a tight rein on oil production, Mason said. This could reflect a "major seasonal swing," as oil inventories typically build in the second quarter in anticipation of the summer driving season.
Meanwhile, crude oil shipments from the Middle East stood at 15.92 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Apr. 4, a decline of 550,000 barrels a day from the previous four-week period.
"Most of the (export) cuts are still bearing on the West, which again reflects the demand story," Mason said. OPEC's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, was likely bearing the brunt of the export cutbacks, he said.
"The decline in Gulf shipments is rather heavily biased toward the West, that rather suggests that (Saudi Arabia is) doing it," Mason said.
Oil Movements forecasts OPEC exports based on spot and term chartering of crude from OPEC member countries, except Angola and Ecuador.
Source: Dow Jones