Friday, October 31, 2008
The Daily Fixtures Report - 31/10/2008
BDI 851 DOWN 34
BCI 1265 DOWN 42
BPI 677 DOWN 20
BSI 583 DOWN 34
BHSI 329 DOWN 17
TIMECHARTER
'Loch Lomond' 2002 75845 dwt dely Canakkale 3/7 Nov trip via Black Sea redel
Spain $6000 daily - Bunge
'Nordems' 2001 75259 dwt dely Paranagua spot trip redel Continent $6000 daily
+ $60000 bb - Armada
'Nord Orion' 2006 75250 dwt dely N.China spot trip via NoPac redel Far East
$5000 daily - Chinese chrtr
'Angelic Peace' 2001 74750 dwt dely aps S.China 20/25 Nov trip redel Continent
$4000 daily - Intermare
'Garima Prem' 2007 74456 dwt dely Sepetiba 15/20 Nov 2 laden legs redel
Skaw-Cape Passero $9000 daily + $130000 bb - Azure
'Hellenic Wind' 1997 73981 dwt dely Richards Bay ppt 3/5 months trading redel
worldwide $11500 daily - Swiss Marine -
'Carola' 1997 73790 dwt dely Kosichang spot 10/14 months trading redel
worldwide $13750 daily - Cargill -
'Rodon' 1993 73670 dwt dely PMO 5/19 Nov trip via Richards Bay redel Lazaro
Cardenas $4000 daily - Oldendorff
'Oriental Sun' 1998 72600 dwt dely El Ferrol 5/10 Nov trip via US Gulf redel
China $10200 daily - Alfred C.Toepfer
'Iguana' 1996 70349 dwt dely Point Lisas ppt trip via Houston & Saudi Arabia
redel Aden $11000 daily + $250000 bb - Louis Dreyfus
'Swift Fame' 1982 66919 dwt dely aps Goa ely Nov trip redel China $2500 daily
- cnr
'GO Faith' 1984 65125 dwt dely Cape Passero spot trip via US Gulf redel China
$6000 daily - Raffles
COAL
'TBN' 70000/10 Roberts Bank/Guangzhou 21/30 Nov $10.00 fio 25000sc/20000sc -
Peabody
GRAIN
'Glory Wealth TBN' 60000/5 hss N.France/Egyptian Med 1/5 Nov $10.25 fio
10000sx/8000sx - Venus
MISC
'Daeyang TBN' 70000/10 mop Ventspils/China 4/8 Nov $20.00 fio 9000sc/scale - cnr
Imarex Daily Brief - Imarex Inc 31st October 2008
Tankers
Crude
VLCC Ag/East: ws 70 ($46k)
Suezmax Wafr/Usac: ws 185 ($75k)
Turkish Straits Delays: 1.5 north / 1 south
Though we have seen about 57 cgos fixed ex AG for November dates, we can’t yet be sure where this
stands in terms of “usual percentages”…as today’s markets (all of them) are anything but “usual”.
Regardless – the fact that rates came off throughout the fixing cycle is a less-than-good sign. If the usual
110 cgos do develop, then rates will have fallen in the face of a normal fixing period. If we see that only
95 cgos or so are fixed, this might also be a bad sign, in that it could signal lower demand going forward.
The Suezmaxes in the Atlantic basin have gotten some mojo going, though we may be looking at a
topped market. Market cargos are beginning to see more offers – and the Nigerian gov’t has stated they
would be cutting exports in Nov and Dec by 5%.
According to the ATS Report, August crude demand in the US was 19.27m bpd, down 1.76mm bdp from
August 2007. And this was before phrases like “great depression”, “absolute disaster” and “does this
mean I can’t afford to go to Starbucks everyday” were being freely tossed around like voter applications at
an ACORN rally. One more very salient point raised in the ATS report is that non-OPEC production in Q4
is expected to rise 2.1m bpd above Q3 levels. Look out below!
Another quiet day in crude FFAs. TD3 Nov trades down 5 points to 65. With Dec priced at about 68 –
the curve appears largely flat. Lower bunker prices of course help Owner’s TCE, but the search for the
Q4 rally is looking grim. TD5 Dec trades down 8 points to 120.
Clean
37kt Cont/Usac: ws200 ($17k)
55kt Ag/East: ws 285 ($47.5k)
Cont/ta has settled down to the Mendoza line on limited demand. The Caribs/Usac route remains
unchanged – and soft – at about 165 ($11k). Eastern clean continues to show underbelly. Though the
region from Spore to Skorea seems to be holding steady, rates from the AG to the East are still under
pressure. The soft naphtha price is not helping.
Clean FFAs have seen good volumes. TC2, however, is showing weakness as Dec drops 20 points to
180. The Asian routes are also trading down. TC4 Nov loses 6 points to 236, while TC5 Nov loses 13
points to 205. New kid on the block TC6 has seen good volumes as well, though prices have moved
south. Nov loses 10 points to 210 and Dec loses 16 points to 215.
Dry Bulk
BDI 851 down 34
BCI 1265 down 42
BPI 677 down20
BSI 583 down 34
BHSI 329 down 17
The drumbeat of negativism continues, though one report has mentioned that imported ore volumes into
China have increased and that some plants intend to resume steel production (source: Mysteel Daily).
This seems like a positive sign, but let’s see how it plays out – and let’s be sure it’s not a small drop in a
larger bucket. Back to the less-than-good news…Omar Nokta at Dahlman Rose has reported that Vale
announced production cutbacks in ore, among other products. We don’t need this.
Dry Bulk FFAs
Contract Close Current Diff
======================================
BDI Nov-Dec 1195 1170 - 25
BDI Q1 1700 1700 - 0
BDI Q2 2275 2150 -25
CS4 Q4 $11,926 $11,875 - $51
CS4 Q1 $14,281 $13,750 - $531
CS4 Cal 09 $19,922 $19,000 - $922
PM4 Q4 $8,607 $8,500 - $107
PM4 Q1 $10,500 $10,000 - $500
PM4 Cal 09 $13,728 $13,125 - $603
SM6 Q4 $9,357 $10,000 + $643
SM6 Q1 $9,719 $9,500 - $219
SM6 Cal09 $11,563 $11,500 -$63
Volumes have been thin as prices drift to the downside. A few dollars up – a few dollars down….doesn’t
mean a thing. We are looking for a sign – any kind of sign – that might point to a way out of this mess.
For today – the futures show nothing. You could, if you really wanted to – look to the equities – and you
might find hope. Recently they have shown an occasional burst of energy. There are many reasons to
think that the equities will indeed make the first move north before the futures and the physical make the
same move. Fair enough. Though my thought here is that many people have their finger on the BUY
button – waiting to catch the front edge of any positive move in dry bulk. We are all aware that these
names could double in a week or so should, all of a sudden – this market turn for the better and show
sustainability. This includes many reasonable investors – as well maybe some looking for that home run
ball to help salvage an otherwise calamitous year. Point being – we may see more than a few false starts
here. When everyone wants a seat on the last flight of the evening, people get jumpy.
Equities
George Glass’s pairs trade came home in the money once again – as the G Team and OSG rallied while
FRO couldn’t budge the sled. Anyone else get in on the GNK spread versus NM and EXM? It reached
about 22% at one point. George Glass got in at 20% - and closed most of those trades at a profitable 12-
16% differential. Aside from the usual pairs trading advice offered here over the past year or so, I will
today add that your minimum spread on tankers needs to be at least 7% and for dry bulk almost 20%, all
else equal. Remember that Friday’s are the roughest. Intra-day differentials can go on for what seems
like forever.
In ratings news…
- Charles Rupinski maintains a BUY on GNK, though he lowers his price target to $34 (from $74). He
lowers EPS estimates but feels the company could be revalued in a better dry bulk environment.
- Anders Rosenlund maintains a SELL on GNK and lowers his target price to $8 (from $10). He cites
concerns over falling asset prices, increasing counter party risks and financial leverage.
- Natasha Boyden maintains a BUY on GNK ($45). She cites strong contract coverage, a strong
balance sheet and experienced management, among other items.
- Greg Lewis maintains a NEUTRAL on GNK ($45). Though he lowers his earnings estimates, he feels
that their solid contract coverage should insulate them in the short term.
- Scott Burk maintains an OUTPERFORM on GNK ($22), citing management’s opinion that the
downside is overdone and his own opinion that their charter coverage is strong. “People still need to
eat.”
- Scott Burk maintains a PERFORM on GMR, citing a risk/reward balance that leans to the upside after
the recent price decline. He does mention concern over the economic backdrop and the still-to-be-seen
impact of OPEC cuts.
- Charles Rupinski maintains a HOLD on GMR, citing expectations for continued tanker strength in Q4,
yet placing 2009 in the “wildcard” category.
- Omar Nokta maintains a HOLD on OSG, awaiting the earnings conference call.
- Glenn Lodden maintains a BUY on OSG ($85), citing a positive view on earnings valuation and general
outlook for crude tankers.
- Justin Yagerman maintains an OUTPEFORM on SSW ($21-24)
- Greg Lewis maintains an OUTPERFORM on SSW, though he lowers his price target to $19 (from $33).
- Omar Nokta maintains a BUY on SSW, though he lowers his price target to $16 (from $29).
- Charles Rupinski maintains a BUY on SSW ($40).
- Charles Rupinski maintains a BUY on Kirby (KEX) with a $67 price target.
- Natasha Boyden maintains a BUY on Kirby (KEX) with a $58 price target.
- Alexander Brand maintains an OVERWEIGHT on Kirby (KEX) with a $47 price target.
- Glenn Lodden maintains a BUY on Belships (NOK 15).
- Anders Rosenlund maintains a HOLD on Belships ($1).
- Glen Lodden UPGRADES Wilh Wilhemsen to a BUY (NOK 130).
Baltic Exchange Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices - 31 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Dry Index 851 (DOWN 34)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1265 (DOWN 42)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 677 (DOWN 20)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 583 (DOWN 34)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 329 (DOWN 17)
Daily Summary of the Baltic Exchange Time Charter Routes
Rate($/Day) Change
BCI
Average of the T/C routes $5982 (DOWN 383)
BPI
Average of the T/C routes $5418 (DOWN 154)
BSI
Average of the T/C routes $6093 (DOWN 359)
BHSI
Average of the T/C routes $4793 (DOWN 259)
<<>>
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index TM - 31 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1265 (DOWN 42)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg. Move
====== =============================================== ====== ====== ======
C2 160000lt Tubarao -Rotterdam 10 6.059 -0.209
C3 150000mt Tubarao - Beilun/Baoshan 15 10.642 -0.354
C4 150000mt Richards Bay - Rotterdam 5 7.891 -0.109
C5 150000mt W Australia - Beilun/Baoshan 15 4.914 -0.063
C7 150000mt Bolivar - Rotterdam 5 6.323 -0.282
C8_03 172000mt Gibraltar/Hamburg trans Atlantic RV 10 4618 -327
C9_03 172000mt Continent/Mediterranean trip Far East 5 10888 -627
C10_03 172000mt Pacific RV 20 4058 -323
C11_03 172000mt China/Japan trip Mediterranean/Cont 5 4363 -254
C12 150000mt Gladstone - Rotterdam 10 12.440 -0.290
Average of the T/C Routes 5982 -383
<<>>
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM - 31 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 677 (DOWN 20)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg. Move
====== ============================== ====== ===== ====
P1A_03 74000mt Transatlantic RV 25 5418 -355
P2A_03 74000mt SKAW-GIB/FAR EAST 25 10428 -200
P3A_03 74000mt Japan-SK/Pacific/RV 25 3307 -13
P4_03 74000mt FAR EAST/NOPAC/SK-PASS 25 2521 -47
Average of the T/C Routes 5418 -154
<<>>
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM - 31 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 583 (DOWN 34)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg. Move
=== ================================== ====== ==== ====
S1A Antwerp - Skaw Trip Far East 12.5 8103 -372
S1B Canakkale Trip Far East 12.5 8114 -545
S2 Japan - SK / NOPAC or Australia rv 25 5227 -381
S3 Japan - SK Trip Gib - Skaw range 25 5000 -310
S4A US Gulf - Skaw-Passero 12.5 7625 -330
S4B Skaw-Passero - US Gulf 12.5 4450 -245
Average of the T/C Routes 6093 -359
The route(s) below do not form part of the index calculation
S5 W.Africa via ECSA to FarEast 0 7185 -440
S6 Jpn-SK trip via Aus/India 0 5865 -340
S7 EC India - China 0 2760 -436
<<>>
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM - 31 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 329 (DOWN 17)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg. Move
=== ================================================== ====== ==== ====
HS1 Skaw - Passero trip Recalada - Rio de Janeiro 12.5 3900 -100
HS2 Skaw - Passero trip Boston / Galveston 12.5 3864 -100
HS3 Recalada / Rio de Janeiro trip Skaw / Passero. 12.5 8667 -250
HS4 US Gulf trip via US Gulf or NCSA to Skaw / Passero 12.5 7640 -280
HS5 SE Asia trip via Australia to S'pore / Japan 25 3514 -343
HS6 S Korea / Japan via NOPAC to S'pore-Japan 25 3621 -329
Average of the T/C Routes 4793 -259
<<>>
<<>>
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 31/10/2008
BDI 851 (DOWN 34) BCI 1265 (DOWN 42) BPI 677 (DOWN 20)
BSI 583 (DOWN 34) BHSI 329 (DOWN 17)
Last published BDTI 1312 (DOWN 16) BCTI 1074 (DOWN 17)
TIMECHARTER
'Loch Lomond' 2002 75845 dwt dely Canakkale 3/7 Nov trip via Black Sea redel Spain $6000 daily - Bunge
'Nordems' 2001 75259 dwt dely Paranagua spot trip redel Continent $6000 daily + $60000 bb - Armada
'Nord Orion' 2006 75250 dwt dely N.China spot trip via NoPac redel Far East $5000 daily - Chinese chrtr
'Angelic Peace' 2001 74750 dwt dely aps S.China 20/25 Nov trip redel Continent $4000 daily - Intermare
'Garima Prem' 2007 74456 dwt dely Sepetiba 15/20 Nov 2 laden legs redel Skaw-Cape Passero $9000 daily + $130000 bb - Azure
'Hellenic Wind' 1997 73981 dwt dely Richards Bay ppt 3/5 months trading redel worldwide $11500 daily - Swiss Marine - <fixed 27/10>
'Carola' 1997 73790 dwt dely Kosichang spot 10/14 months trading redel worldwide $13750 daily - Cargill - <recent>
'Rodon' 1993 73670 dwt dely PMO 5/19 Nov trip via Richards Bay redel Lazaro Cardenas $4000 daily - Oldendorff
'Oriental Sun' 1998 72600 dwt dely El Ferrol 5/10 Nov trip via US Gulf redel China $10200 daily - Alfred C.Toepfer
'Iguana' 1996 70349 dwt dely Point Lisas ppt trip via Houston & Saudi Arabia redel Aden $11000 daily + $250000 bb - Louis Dreyfus
'Swift Fame' 1982 66919 dwt dely aps Goa ely Nov trip redel China $2500 daily - cnr
'GO Faith' 1984 65125 dwt dely Cape Passero spot trip via US Gulf redel China $6000 daily - Raffles
COAL
'TBN' 70000/10 Roberts Bank/Guangzhou 21/30 Nov $10.00 fio 25000sc/20000sc - Peabody
GRAIN
'Glory Wealth TBN' 60000/5 hss N.France/Egyptian Med 1/5 Nov $10.25 fio 10000sx/8000sx - Venus
MISC
'Daeyang TBN' 70000/10 mop Ventspils/China 4/8 Nov $20.00 fio 9000sc/scale - cnr
TNT Dry Freight Review - October 31, 2008
PANAMAX
=======
The global credit squeeze and the accelerating decline in secondhand prices have
many people in the shipping industry holding their breaths. Highly leveraged
companies are expected to find it very difficult to survive the next few weeks
and months as their outstanding loans/debt outpace the value of their assets.
Next week's Eisbein in Hamburg will likely be a more restrained affair than last
year when the market was riding a high of climbing rates and optimism.
Overall there was more activity reported done for the Panamax sector, but as in
both the larger and smaller size markets, rates have continued to drop. In the
Atlantic, trans-Atlantic business fixed modern tonnage spot at $6,000 daily plus
a small ballast bonus. There was said to be some inquiry for period business,
but details that emerged related to recent business rather than today. The
Pacific basin struggled into the weekend with rates for trips back in the $4,000
range. The Baltic Panamax index lost 20 to 677.
In Atlantic Panamax business, the 2007-built 74,456 dwt Garima Prem fixed to
Azure with November 15-20 delivery Sepetiba for a trip with 2 laden legs and
redelivery Skaw-Cape Passero at $9,000 daily plus a ballast bonus of $130,000.
Armada took the 2001-built 75,259 dwt Nordems with spot delivery Paranagua for a
trip with redelivery on the Continent at $6,000 daily plus a ballast bonus of
$60,000.
Bunge agreed $6,000 daily for the 2002-built 75,845 dwt Loch Lomond with
November 03-07 delivery Canakkale for a trip via the Black Sea and redelivery
Spain.
A.C.Toepfer reportedly fixed the 1998-built 72,600 dwt Oriental Sun with
November 05-10 delivery El Ferrol for a trip via the US Gulf and redelivery
China at $10,200 daily.
Louis Dreyfus was the charterer of the 1996-built 70,349 dwt Iguana with prompt
delivery Point Lisas for a trip via Houston and Saudi Arabia, with redelivery
Aden at $11,000 daily plus a ballast bonus of $250,000.
Venus took a Glory Wealth TBN for early-November loading 60,000 tons 5 % hss
from north France to the Egyptian Mediterranean at $10.25.
Raffles has the 1984-built 65,125 dwt GO Faith for spot delivery Cape Passero
for a trip via the US Gulf and redelivery China at $6,000 daily.
In period business, it emerged that earlier this week, the 1997-built 73,981 dwt
Hellenic Wind fixed 3-5 months trading with Swiss Marine for prompt delivery
Richards Bay and redelivery worldwide at $11,500 daily.
In the Pacific, the 2001-built 74,750 dwt Angelic Peace has fixed with Intermare
for November 20-25 delivery aps south China for a trip with redelivery on the
Continent at $4,000 daily.
Oldendorff was said to be the charterer of the 1993-built 73,670 dwt Rodon with
November 05-19 delivery passing Muscat outbound for a trip via Richards Bay and
redelivery Lazaro Cardenas at $4,000 daily.
The 1982-built 66,919 dwt Swift Fame was reported fixed to an unnamed charterer
with November 01-05 delivery aps Goa for a trip with redelivery China at $2,500
daily.
Pacific period business heard that Cargill recently fixed the 1997-built 73,790
dwt Carola with spot delivery Kosichang for 10-14 months trading and redelivery
worldwide at $13,750 daily.
CAPESIZE
========
There were no fixtures reported for the Capesize sector today. General
commentary on the Capesize market appears to be that it is bad and getting
worse. The Business Spectator reported today that with the spot daily rental of
Capesize tonnage at about $6,365, owners are filling world ports with empty
ships that they can no longer afford to run. Additionally, some of these
anchored ships have cargoes they can't unload because the owners of the cargo
have refused permission to unload because they haven't received a letter of
credit from the buyer. In the same report, Andreas Vergottis of Tufton Oceanic
was reported to have said that one-fifth "of the world's dry bulk companies may
soon have negative net worth" due to the decline in values on secondhand ships,
"and the value of their fleets is below outstanding debt". The Baltic Capesize
index was doen 42 to 1265 today.
HANDY/SUPRAMAX
==============
In the Atlantic, reports of concluded business were held private, but Lloyds
List indicated today that there has been an increase in activity from the Black
Sea and Mediterranean, with more ships fixed from these areas. Alas, rates are
still sliding with no bottom in sight yet.
On anecdotal evidence only, rates for Black Sea-Med/FEast-MEast runs are in the
region of $7,000-$8,000 daily. Supramax rates on a US Gulf/Japan trip have
reportedly been done at about $9,000 daily. West Africa/Med-Black Sea business
was reported done at $5,250 daily. Finally, period business of about 1-year was
said done at $11,000 daily.
From the Pacific, Fearnley's reported more demand for iron ore cargoes from west
coast India, but the downward slide in rates from the Indian Ocean continues
unabated. As well, sources said that Handysize cargoes have been fixed on
Supramax vessels as the rates are the same. According to the Baltic Exchange,
there was talk that a modern handysize had done a west Australia round at $2,750
daily, but no details emerged.
The Baltic Supramax index closed the week down 34 to 583, and the Handysize
index dropped 17 to 329.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The Daily Fixtures Report - 30/10/2008
BDI 885 (DOWN 40)
BCI 1307 (DOWN 38)
BPI 697 (DOWN 39)
BSI 617 (DOWN 38)
BHSI 346 (DOWN 22)
TIMECHARTER
'Pacific Ruby' 1993 tanker conversion 260988 dwt dely Singapore spot 7/9 months trading redel worldwide $20000 daily - cnr
'Castillo De Valverde' 2005 173764 dwt dely aps Narvik 10/20 Nov trip redel Jubail $7000 daily - Oldendorff
'Lord Byron' 2005 76838 dwt dely aps Recalada 15/20 Nov trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan rge $12000 daily + $250000 bb - Sinochart
'Navios Orbiter' 2004 76602 dwt dely Rotterdam ppt trip via USEC redel S.Korea $12000 daily - Daeyang
'Ecosand G.O.' 2008 75149 dwt dely Kosichang 15/22 Nov 1 years trading redel worldwide $14500 daily - Cargill
'Garima Prem' Mittal relet 2007 74700 dwt dely Sepetiba 15/20 Nov 2 laden legs redel Skaw-Cape Passero $9000 daily + $130000 bb - Azure
'Giorgios S' 2001 74249 dwt dely Hawaii 5/10 Nov trip via NoPac redel China int sulphur $8500 daily - Eitzen
'Four Coal' 2000 74020 dwt dely Cape Passero 30 Oct/2 Nov transatlantic round redel Skaw-Cape Passero $6000 daily - cnr
'Omegas' 1997 73606 dwt dely SW Pass 18/24 Nov trip redel Skaw-Cape Passero int coal $6400 daily + $230000 bb - Fratelli D'Amato
'Bulk Fern' 1998 73317 dwt dely Goa 1/7 Nov trip redel China $4000 daily - Brownstone
'Barbara' 1998 73300 dwt dely Aughinish ppt trip NC South America redel Skaw-Cape Passsero $8250 daily - Armada -
'Dimitris L' 2001 73193 dwt dely Zhoushan 28/31 Oct trip via NoPac redel Far East $3000 daily - Cargill
'Tai Honesty' 2007 55418 dwt dely Chennai spot trip redel China $2000 daily - cnr
'Genco Predator' 2005 55407 dwt dely Kandla early November trip via West Coast India redel Singapore-Japan $3000 daily - cnr
'Anna Dorothea' 2009 55000 dwt dely Far East early 2009 3 years trading redel worldwide approx $17000 daily - Arya
'Nanos' 2002 50296 dwt dely aps Bolivar early November trip redel Chile $13000 daily - Pacbasin
'Danos Z' 2001 46492 dwt dely aps Conakry 13/16 Nov trip redel Mediterranean/Black Sea $5250 daily - Oldendorff
'Solent' 2002 35200 dwt dely Santos 10/15 Nov trip redel Continent $10000 daily - TST
'Indigo Ocean' 2008 28749 dwt dely US west coast 15/20 Nov trip redel Far East $5000 daily + $120000 bb - Dooyang
'Marie O' 1997 26411 dwt dely Cilicap prompt trip via West Australia redel Far East $5000 daily - Austbulk -
COAL
'Great Challenger' 2005 160000/10 Richards Bay/Rotterdam 12/22 Nov $8.00 fio scale/25000sc - Morgan Stanley
'TBN' 70000/10 Bolivar/Mobile end Oct $6.80 fio 35000sc/25000sc - Navios
'TBN' 70000/10 Mobile/Eregli 17/25 Nov $10.50 fio 25000sc/17500sc - Cetragpa
'Norden TBN' 70000/10 Hampton Roads/Tarragona 11/20 Nov $7.90 fio 30000sc/20000Satpmshex - Cetragpa
'Alam Padu' 2005 70000/10 Davant/Ensted 20/30 Nov $13.80 fio 25000sc/25000sc - Navios
GRAIN
'De Ming Hai' 2008 55000/10 hss US Gulf/China 14/24 Nov $28.00 fio 10000sx/8000sx - Noble
Imarex Brief 30th October 2008
Tankers
Crude
VLCC Ag/East: ws 70 ($46k)
Suezmax Wafr/Usac: ws 185 ($75k)
Turkish Straits Delays: 1.5 north / 1 south
The AG fixing pace remains measured as we approach the 50% mark. Seems we have
found a potential conference rate of ws 70 – which implies a bottom might be at
hand. I will agree with this assessment as soon as rates move up. There is a
lot of uncertainty in the realm of worldwide finance and credit, combined with
just as much uncertainty concerning how much oil will be needed…pumped…and
shipped. The good news, for those who are into such things – is that the
Atlantic basin has firmed on steady demand – allowing Suexmaxes to earn more than
$70k/day on out of Wafr. Bravo!!!!
Crude FFAs have again started the day slowly. Yesterday this route showed some
paper strength, though today that mild momentum has disappeared due to the
continued soft physical market. The TD3 Nov and Dec contracts are mostly in line
with the spot rate of ws 70. TD7 Cal 2009 trades up 1.5 points to 116, while
little brother TD11 Nov trades down 10 points to 150.
Clean
37kt Cont/Usac: ws210 ($17k)
55kt Ag/East: ws 292.5 ($49.5k)
Atlantic basin clean remains about the same – as enough demand exists to keep
Cont/Usac at about the 210 level, while the Caribs/Usac is still full of bourbon
at 165 ($11k). Eastern clean routes are still coming off. According to the ATS
Report, demand from petrochemical firms has collapsed due to negative cracking
margins. The report also advises that naphtha prices in the East are at 5 year
lows.
TC2 has seen slow trading – with the Nov and Dec largely in line with the spot
market in the low 200s. Out East, TC4 and TC5 Nov trade mostly flat at 245 and
220.
Dry Bulk
BDI 885 down 40
BCI 1307 down 38
BPI 697 down 39
BSI 617 down 38
BHSI 346 down 22
>From Justin Yagerman at Wachovia:
Channel Checks Note That Several Top Tier Counterparties Are Renegotiating. Our
channel checks indicate that several top‐tier charterers, including large
companies from Korea, and major international commodity players are renegotiating
charter contracts, with one company physically in Greece meeting with management
teams on an ongoing basis. While both Industrial Carriers and Britannia Bulk
(DWT, not rated) have capitulated over the past two weeks, recent counterparty
damage has been predominantly limited to second and third tier counterparties. It
is uncertain as to whether or not public dry bulk players will be willing to
renegotiate. On one hand, once that process begins the likelihood of it
continuing is high. On the other hand, something may be better than nothing
depending on how dire the market becomes.
>From Urs Dur at Lazard (read the whole thing): Major negatives remain for the
sector… The dry bulk spot market remains virtually closed. No letters of credit
appear available to move short‐term cargoes. The collapse in charter rates put
heavy downward pressure on ship asset values, making many of the public dry bulk
shipowners face possible breaches of their leverage covenants, and some small
owners may face bankruptcy today. Charterers are stressed in paying existing
contracts. Dividends will likely decline in coming quarters. Secured debt is
unavailable, let alone the capital markets. Spot demand from China is virtually
nil. The ship orderbook, even if you cut it 40%, remains huge and almost
certainly will outpace demand in 2009. No way to sugarcoat it, it’s very bad out
there today.
…but there are hints of friendlier seas ahead. The long‐term charter market for
dry bulk ships is higher than the spot market. LIBOR has been coming down, the
commercial paper market is looking to perk up, and we expect the lack of L/Cs for
spot commodity cargoes to end in 4Q. Banks will find it a challenge to enforce
LTVs when the whole asset class is under pressure, and we expect them to work
with borrowers. The stronger dollar is good for Asian exports over the longer
term, the ECB has room to cut interest rates, and the high amount of global
credit stimulus is unprecedented. Lower commodity and oil prices are good for the
consumer. Chinese iron ore inventories have been coming down on balance in recent
weeks, and Chinese steel prices are hinting (only) at stabilizing. Finally, we
believe today’s share valuations are betting that dry bulk companies lack NAV,
and that global trade is about to end ... we simply believe that bet is, at best,
premature.
Dry Bulk FFAs
Contract Close Current Diff
======================================
BDI Nov‐Dec 1275 1375 +100
BDI Q1 1575 1675 +100
BDI Q2 2125 2225 +100
CS4 Q4 $11,838 $13,000 +$1162
CS4 Q1 $13,281 $15,250 +$1969
CS4 Cal 09 $18,805 $20,500 +$1695
PM4 Q4 $8,689 $9,000 +$311
PM4 Q1 $9,825 $10,750 +$925
PM4 Cal 09 $13,400 $14,000 +$600
SM6 Q4 $9,411 $10,000 +$589
SM6 Q1 $9,575 $10,250 +$675
SM6 Cal09 $11,531 $12,500 +$969
Volumes have picked up and….prices have turned north. Hip Hip!!!! Hard to read
the tea leaves here – as we see nothing new on the physical that would suggest a
turn. However, with some of the equities making moves to the upside – maybe
someone knows something I don’t. It wouldn’t be the first time that ever
happened. One suggestion from Tulane’s finest was that maybe an overall short
covering mindset has crept into numerous markets after the VW debacle from
earlier this week.
Equities
George Glass got in on another pairs trade after noticing that FRO surged while
OSG and GMR failed to budge. The 6% or so spread he entered the trades at showed
mixed results. The GMR result was about even, though the OSG leg drifted to
moderately painful 10%. Let’s help George avoid the Ebay shuffle and help close
those spreads.
In ratings news…
*** Correction from yesterday: Anders Rosenlund maintains a HOLD on GOGL.OL with
target price of $ 0.80 (not $8).
Genmar
‐ Omar Nokta maintains a BUY on GMR ($18), and views the $2 dividend as
sustainable.
‐ Henrik With maintains a HOLD on GMR, citing reliable contract coverage but also
high leverage.
Genco
‐ Urs Dur has upgraded GNK to a BUY (from hold).
‐ Omar Nokta maintains a HOLD on GNK, citing a dry bulk market that has taken a
turn for the worse, among other things.
‐ Henrik With maintains a HOLD on GNK, citing a current attractive share price
based on multiples, though one that could see downside once rate assumptions are
cut.
Other
‐ Justin Yagerman downgrades EGLE and DSX to Market Perform, citing – among other
things, a depressed charter market with no signs of correcting in the near
future.
‐ Urs Dur upgrades DSX, EGLE and NM to BUY (from hold), he cuts estimates but
advises investors “Don’t miss the boat!”
‐ Glenn Lodden maintains a SELL on Solvang (Norwegian listed LPG company).
Target price is NOK 20.
‐ Glenn Lodden maintains a SELL on NOL (SGD .70).
‐ Justin Yagerman maintains a Market Perform on ESEA.
Glenn Lodden has released a report showing the orderbooks for all dry bulk and
crude tanker companies they cover in terms of shipyard exposure. Yard
classification is also provided. Some highlights:
‐ Many ship owners are struggling to obtain financing to fund newbuild capital
commitments. This development is likely to lead to order cancellations at
shipyards.
‐ Many shipyards are even now struggling with working capital requirements, and
could be harder it if/when cancellations materialize.
‐ A number of shipyards that have taken newbuild orders have moreover yet to be
built, and there is uncertainty whether some of them will see the light of day.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
The Daily Fixtures Report - 29/10/2008
BDI 925 DOWN 57
BCI 1345 DOWN 55
BPI 736 DOWN 66
BSI 655 DOWN 46
BHSI 368 DOWN 22
TIMECHARTER
'Pontrotriton' Cosco Hong Kong relet 2007 177947 dwt dely aps S.Brazil 10/15 Nov trip redel Skaw-Cape Passero $4000 daily + $260000 bb - Cargill
'Sideris GS' 2006 175000 dwt - has since fixed to Classic Maritime on private terms>
'Andrea D'Amato' BBL relet 2008 77000 dwt dely Aden 14/20 Nov trip via Richards Bay redel Portbury $3000 daily - SSE 'F.D. Gennaro Aurilia' BBL relet 2004 74414 dwt dely Mundra 31 Oct/2 Nov trip via Richards Bay redel UK $3000 daily - SSE 'Tetien Trader' BHP Billiton relet 2001 73910 dwt dely aps Port Drummond 12/17 Nov trip redel Mobile $6000 daily - Augustea 'Mass Glory' 1990 70424 dwt dely aps Goa 28/31 Oct trip redel China $3000 daily - Brownstone 'Torm Baltic' 1997 69614 dwt dely Gibraltar 1/4 Nov trip via EC South America redel PMO $13500 daily - ETA Dubai - 'CSK Unity' 1995 68371 dwt dely Piombino 1/5 Nov 11/13 months trading redel worldwide $11000 daily - European chrtr 'Alba' 1983 64711 dwt dely Genoa 29 Oct/5 Nov trip via Brazil & Black Sea redel Skaw-Cape Passero int sugar $4500 daily option redel Far East $7000 daily
- Cargill
'Bulk Jupiter' 2006 56009 dwt dely USGulf early Nov trip redel Morocco $8100 daily - Atlas 'Yin Ning' HMM relet 2008 53300 dwt dely Mississippi River 8/12 Nov trip redel Far East $10000 daily - cnr 'Konkar Theo' 1994 45232 dwt dely Singapore 10/15 Nov trip via Australia redel USGulf $3000 daily - MUR
ORE
'Pacific Confidence' 2004 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 20/30 Nov $5.00 fio scale/30000sc - SK Shipping
COAL
'TBN' 160000/10 Hay Point/Eregli 15/25 Nov $13.00 fio scale/25000sc - BHP Billiton
Imarex Brief 29th October 2008
Tankers
Crude
VLCC Ag/East: ws 70 ($46k)
Suezmax Wafr/Usac: ws 160 ($60k)
Turkish Straits Delays: 1.5 north / 1 south
We have seen some increased activity in the past 24 hours – though rates are still declining. The position
list appears ample as we are still less than halfway through the expected fixing activity for the AG. Cal
Maritime’s Stetson-wearing-finest tells me that on Oct 29th of 2006 we also saw less than half the Nov
program concluded at that point in time. Recall that 2006 was a year with a very strong Q3 and a not-sostrong
Q4. This doesn’t mean that things will continue to weaken – but it is another indicator that the Q4
rally might be behind us. The good news of course is that the Wafr/Usac route has pushed up to 160. I
am not sure that Suezmaxes will lead a turnaround for the whole market, but good news is good news.
Also worth noting is that even with certain Worldscale rates on the decline, earnings are holding up
relatively well due to the falling bunker price.
Crude FFAs are in abeyance. With TD3 Nov and Dec at ws 68 – the forward curve is pancake flat.
Though the spot mkt on TD5 shows strength – the Nov FFA sits at 135 and Dec at 125, implying the party
will not last – if you accept the opinion of those with crystal balls.
Clean
37kt Cont/Usac: ws210 ($17k) 55kt Ag/East: ws 295 ($50k)
We have seen enough Atlantic basin activity to keep Cont/ta rates at the 210 level – though the
Caribs/Usac market still struggles at a soft 170 ($11k). The Usg/Europe route is enjoying an open diesel
arb, though not enough to bring life to the doleful Caribs mkt. Asian clean markets continue to soften –
with most routes losing another few points overnight.
Clean FFAs are quiet. TC2 Nov and Dec sit only a few points above the current spot level. This is
certainly not bad news – but nor does it represent any significant good news. A Cal 2009 deal was done
on TC2 at 151, a welcome increase of 2 points. Asian clean FFAs have come off a touch as well, though
volume is quite limited. TC5 Jan comes off 5 points to 127, while the Q1 falls 8 points to 122.
EIA Expectations – Reuters Poll
Crude + 1.3
Mogas + 1.2
Dist + .9
Dry Bulk
BDI 925 down 57
BCI 1345 down 55
BPI 736 down 66
BSI 655 down 46
BHSI 368 down 22
The market remains weak – with little or no positive signs emerging. There really isn’t much for me to
add.
Dry Bulk FFAs
Contract Close Current Diff
======================================
BDI Nov-Dec 1350 1125 -225
BDI Q1 1800 1525 -275
BDI Q2 2400 2000 -400
CS4 Q4 $12,751 $11,500 - $1251
CS4 Q1 $15,031 $13,250 - $1781
CS4 Cal 09 $21,411 $18,500 - $2911
PM4 Q4 $9,341 $9,341 - $1091
PM4 Q1 $11,050 $9,750 - $1300
PM4 Cal 09 $15,138 $13,250 - $1888
SM6 Q4 $9,565 $9,000 - $565
SM6 Q1 $10,125 $9,500 - $625
SM6 Cal09 $12,344 $11,750 -$594
Though volumes have improved a touch, the outlook remains funereal. As soon as I see good news, I
will report it. Today is not that day.
Equities
Many thanks to all those who helped close the GMR/FRO squeeze trade yesterday. It took time, but
George Glass finally made a few ducats on the transaction and was able to pull American Girl Doll Ebay
auction before someone claimed his kids Christmas gifts (from last year no less).
Anyone who has not read the press release from Britannia Bulk (DWT) – I would suggest you do so
regardless of whether you trade equities – or regardless of what shipping sector you are a part of.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/081028/0446976.html
In ratings news…
- Jonathan Chappell has lowered his rate and EPS estimates for dry bulk due to softer global demand,
though he is not changing his existing ratings for the names under coverage: DSX – Neutral, EGLE –
Overweight, GNK – Overweight, NM – Overweight. “Too late to sell, but too early to buy” is how he
sums up the environment.
- Scott Burk has decreased earning estimates for the tanker and dry bulk names under coverage, though
he maintains ratings as follows: GNK – Outperform, DSX – Outperform, CPLP – Outperform, GMR –
Perform, NAT – Perform, OSG – Perform, DRYS – Perform, EGLE – Perform, EXM – Perform
- Henrik With maintains a BUY on Golden Ocean. Read the note.
- Anders Rosenlund maintains a HOLD on Golden Ocean ($8). Read the note.
- Henrik With maintains a SELL on Exmar and expects to lower his target price. He cites weak operating
results and a poor LPG outlook going forward.
TNT Dry Freight Review - 29 October 2008
PANAMAX
=======
An extremely quiet day by anyone's standards today. The Panamax
sector saw rates drop again and owners are balking at operating below
breakevens. Sources reported that better rates, when paid, are due to
the particular needs of the charterer, not to any betterment in the
market. From the Pacific, the Business Standard (India) reported today
that Indian shipowners may be particularly affected by the current
global economic crisis. Dropping freight rates are leading to
cancellations of long-term contracts, and we may see more of the same
as the market problems will likely be extended. The Business Standard
indicated that Indian shipping companies earn about half of their
revenue from long-term contracts. In the same report, i-maritime is
quoted as saying that the average operating costs for a 70,000-tonner
is about $7,000 daily, but current spot market rates are below $5,000
daily. i-maritime CEO Ramesh Singhai was quoted as saying that if
these rate levels persist for 3-6 months, "then 10%-20% of the fleet
will have to be kept idle". Indeed, rates seen today for modern
70,000-tonners were in the $3,000 daily range. The Baltic Panamax
index dropped 66 today to 736.
For Atlantic business, Cargill has taken the 1983-built 64,711 dwt
Alba with October 29-November 05 delivery Genoa for a trip via Brazil
and the Black Sea, with redelivery Skaw-Cape Passero at $4,500 daily,
with optional redelivery in the Far East at $7,000 daily.
The 1997-built 73,606 dwt Omegas reportedly fixed on subjects to
Fratelli D'Amato with spot/prompt delivery Ireland for a trip via
Southwest Pass and redelivery Continent/Mediterranean range at $6,400
daily plus a ballast bonus of $230,000.
Augustea was linked with the 2001-built 73,910 dwt BHP Billiton-relet
Tetien Trader with November 12-17 delivery aps Port Drummond for a
trip with redelivery Mobile at $6,000 daily.
It emerged that the 1997-built 69,614 dwt Torm Baltic fixed to ETA
Dubai with November 01-04 delivery Gibraltar for a trip via east coast
South America and redelivery passing Muscat outbound at $13,500 daily.
In period business, the 1995-built 68,371 dwt CSK Unity went to an
undisclosed European charterer with November 01-05 delivery Piombino
for 11-13 months trading and redelivery worldwide at $11,000 daily.
For the Pacific basin, SSE proved to be the charterer of the
2008-built 77,000 dwt BBL-relet Andrea D'Amato with November 14-20
delivery Aden for a trip via Richards Bay and redelivery Portbury at
$3,000 daily.
SSE also agreed the same rate for the 2004-built 74,414 dwt BBL-relet
FD Gennaro Aurilia with end-October/early-November delivery Mundra for
a trip via Richards Bay and redelivery in the U.K..
The 1990-built 70,424 dwt Mass Glory fixed with Brownstone for October
28-31 delivery aps Goa for a trip with redelivery China at $3,000
daily.
In Pacific period business, Cargill was said to have the 1997-built
73,750 dwt Carola on subjects for prompt-November 07 delivery Taiwan
for 10-14 months trading and redelivery worldwide at $13,750 daily.
CAPESIZE
========
There is no need to look for a straw to break the camels back, the
back of this particular market seems well and truly broken. Concluded
business is approaching nil and reports extremely hard to come by. As
Capesize rates approach breakeven levels, Bloomberg reported yesterday
that Zodiac Maritime may "idle 20 capesize ships". If done, this
represents about 5% of the spot market fleet, according to the report.
Owners are also slowing sailing speeds to cut their fuel
expenditures. If rates drop below that mark, owners will surely
decide that anchoring their ships is the best option. From Forbes
yesterday, word that Brittannia Bulk Holdings, a new arrival to the
shipping market in June 2008, has announced they are posting a large
3rd quarter loss and are now considering liquidation or bankruptcy
protection. The same report indicated that investors fear something
similar from Dryships, Euroseas, and Navios Maritime as their stocks
dropped over 4% yesterday. The Baltic Capesize index fell another 55
to 1345. In the Pacific, BHP Billiton fixed a TBN with November
15-25 loading 160,000 tons 10% coal from Hay Point to Eregli at
$13.00.
The 2004-built Pacific Confidence went to SK Shipping with November
20-30 loading 160,000 tons 10% ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao at
$5.00.
HANDY/SUPRAMAX
==============
The market for Supramaxes and Handysizes softened again today and for
the first time came talk of owners steering clear of the market.
There is so much competition for the business on offer, and charterers
ideas have gotten so low, that "owners incentive to remain in the
market is all but gone". There was talk that in the Atlantic, US
Gulf/north Africa business was being touted at $8,000 daily or under,
although details have yet to surface. Pacific business was very quiet
today, with little concluded business heard done. The Baltic Supramax
index fell 46 to 655, while the Handysize index was off 22 at 368.
>From the Atlantic, a South Korean charterer reportedly took the
2008-built 53,300 dwt HMM-relet Yin Ning with November 08-12 delivery
in the Mississippi River for a trip with redelivery in the Far East at
$10,000 daily.
The 2001-built 46,492 dwt Danos Z has gone to Oldendorff with November
13-16 delivery Conakry for a trip with redelivery in the Black Sea at
$5,250 daily.
Out of the Pacific, MUR was the charterer of the 1994-built 45,232 dwt
Konkar Theo with November 10-15 delivery Singapore for a trip via
Australia and redelivery in the US Gulf at $3,000 daily
Baltic Exchange Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices - 29 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Dry Index 925 (DOWN 57)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1345 (DOWN 55)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 736 (DOWN 66)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 655 (DOWN 46)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 368 (DOWN 22)
Daily Summary of the Baltic Exchange Time Charter Routes
Rate($/Day) Change
BCI
Average of the T/C routes $6747 (DOWN 593)
BPI
Average of the T/C routes $5883 (DOWN 530)
BSI
Average of the T/C routes $6850 (DOWN 485)
BHSI
Average of the T/C routes $5374 (DOWN 333)
Baltic Exhange Capesize Index TM - 29 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1345 (DOWN 55)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg.
Move
====== =============================================== ====== ======
======
C2 160000lt Tubarao -Rotterdam 10 6.464
-0.245
C3 150000mt Tubarao - Beilun/Baoshan 15 11.283
-0.217
C4 150000mt Richards Bay - Rotterdam 5 8.082
-0.250
C5 150000mt W Australia - Beilun/Baoshan 15 5.045
-0.178
C7 150000mt Bolivar - Rotterdam 5 6.900
-0.295
C8_03 172000mt Gibraltar/Hamburg trans Atlantic RV 10 5505
-895
C9_03 172000mt Continent/Mediterranean trip Far East 5 12200
-808
C10_03 172000mt Pacific RV 20 4538
-412
C11_03 172000mt China/Japan trip Mediterranean/Cont 5 4746
-258
C12 150000mt Gladstone - Rotterdam 10 12.900
-0.205
Average of the T/C Routes 6747
-593
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM - 29 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 736 (DOWN 66)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg. Move
====== ============================== ====== ===== ====
P1A_03 74000mt Transatlantic RV 25 6273 -755
P2A_03 74000mt SKAW-GIB/FAR EAST 25 11001 -610
P3A_03 74000mt Japan-SK/Pacific/RV 25 3505 -438
P4_03 74000mt FAR EAST/NOPAC/SK-PASS 25 2755 -315
Average of the T/C Routes 5883 -530
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM - 29 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 655 (DOWN 46)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg. Move
=== ================================== ====== ==== ====
S1A Antwerp - Skaw Trip Far East 12.5 9080 -795
S1B Canakkale Trip Far East 12.5 9218 -650
S2 Japan - SK / NOPAC or Australia rv 25 5952 -380
S3 Japan - SK Trip Gib - Skaw range 25 5555 -335
S4A US Gulf - Skaw-Passero 12.5 8525 -735
S4B Skaw-Passero - US Gulf 12.5 4960 -270
Average of the T/C Routes 6850 -485
The route(s) below do not form part of the index calculation
S5 W.Africa via ECSA to FarEast 0 8180 -510
S6 Jpn-SK trip via Aus/India 0 6645 -541
S7 EC India - China 0 3363 -283
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM - 29 October 2008
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 368 (DOWN 22)
Rte
Num Description Weight Avg.
Move
=== ================================================== ====== ====
====
HS1 Skaw - Passero trip Recalada - Rio de Janeiro 12.5 4186
-228
HS2 Skaw - Passero trip Boston / Galveston 12.5 4143
-228
HS3 Recalada / Rio de Janeiro trip Skaw / Passero. 12.5 9250
-394
HS4 US Gulf trip via US Gulf or NCSA to Skaw / Passero 12.5 8140
-275
HS5 SE Asia trip via Australia to S'pore / Japan 25 4286
-393
HS6 S Korea / Japan via NOPAC to S'pore-Japan 25 4350
-379
Average of the T/C Routes 5374
-333
* TIME CHARTER FIXTURES - 29 October 2008 *
PONTROTRITON 2007 COSCO HONG KONG RELET 177947 DWT
TCT
DEL APS S.BRAZIL, NOV 10/15, TRIP, REDEL SKAW-CAPE PASSERO
$4000 DAILY + $260000 BB CARGILL
RPTD 10/28: CORRECTS TRIP DETAILS
----------------------------------------------------
SIDERIS GS 2006 175000 DWT
TC
RPTD 10/24: INCORRECT, SHIP NOW FIXED PRIVATELY TO CLASSIC MARITIME
----------------------------------------------------
ANDREA D'AMATO 2008 BBL RELET 77000 DWT
TCT
DEL ADEN, NOV 14/20, TRIP VIA RICHARDS BAY, REDEL PORTBURY
$3000 DAILY SSE
----------------------------------------------------
F.D.GENNARO AURILIA UNRPTD 74,414
TCT
DEL MUNDRA, OCT31/2NOV, TRIP, REDEL UK VIA RICHARDS BAY
$3,000 DAILY SSE
----------------------------------------------------
TETIEN TRADER 2001 BHP BILLITON RELET 73910 DWT
TCT
DEL APS PORT DRUMMOND, NOV 12/17, TRIP, REDEL MOBILE
$6000 DAILY AUGUSTEA
----------------------------------------------------
CAROLA 1997 73,750 DWT
TC
DEL TAIWAN, PROMPT-NOV 07, 10-14 MONTHS TRADING, REDEL WORLDWIDE
$13,750 DAILY CARGILL
FIXED ON SUBJECTS
----------------------------------------------------
OMEGAS 1997 73,606 DWT
TCT
DEL IRELAND, SPOT/PROMPT, TRIP VIA SW PASS, REDEL CONT/MED RANGE
$6,400 DAILY PLUS $230,000 BB FRATELLI
D'AMATO
FIXED ON SUBJECTS
----------------------------------------------------
MASS GLORY 1990 70424 DWT
TCT
DEL APS GOA, OCT 28/31, TRIP, REDEL CHINA
$3000 DAILY BROWNSTONE
----------------------------------------------------
TORM BALTIC 1997 69614 DWT
TCT
DEL GIBRALTAR, NOV 1/4, TRIP VIA EC SOUTH AMERICA, REDEL PMO
$13500 DAILY ETA DUBAI
RECENT
----------------------------------------------------
CSK UNITY 1995 68371 DWT
TC
DEL PIOMBINO, NOV 1/5, 11/13 MONTHS TRADING, REDEL WORLDWIDE
$11000 DAILY EUROPEAN
CHRTR
----------------------------------------------------
ALBA 1983 64711 DWT
TCT
DEL GENOA, OCT29-5NOV, TRIP VIA BRAZIL/BLK SEA, REDEL SKAW-PASSERO OP
FEAST
$4500 DAILY OPT $7000 DAILY CARGILL
INT SUGAR
----------------------------------------------------
BULK JUPITER 2006 56009 DWT
TCT
DEL USGULF, EARLY NOV, TRIP, REDEL MOROCCO
$8100 DAILY ATLAS
RPTD 10/28: CORRECTS TRIP DETAILS AND RATE
----------------------------------------------------
YIN NING 2008 HMM RELET 53300 DWT
TCT
DEL MISSISSIPPI RIVER, NOV 8/12, TRIP, REDEL FAR EAST
$10000 DAILY CNR
----------------------------------------------------
DANOS Z 2001 46,492 DWT
TCT
DEL CONAKRY, NOV 13-16, TRIP, REDEL BLACK SEA
$5,250 DAILY OLDENDORFF
----------------------------------------------------
KONKAR THEO 1994 45232 DWT
TCT
DEL SINGAPORE, NOV 10/15, TRIP VIA AUSTRALIA, REDEL USGULF
$3000 DAILY MUR
------
** DRY VOYAGE FIXTURES - 29 October 2008 **
========= COAL =======
TBN 160000/10 COAL
HAY POINT TO EREGLI, 15/25 NOV
$13.00 FIO SCALE/25000SC BHP BILLITON
========= ORE =======
PACIFIC CONFIDENCE 2004 160000/10 ORE
PORT HEDLAND TO QINGDAO, 20/30 NOV
$5.00 FIO SCALE/30000SC SK SHIPPING
Britannia Bulk at risk of default
By Robert Wright in London
Published: October 28 2008 19:28 | Last updated: October 28 2008 19:28
Britannia Bulk, which specialises in moving coal from the Baltics to the UK, could be the first quoted shipping company to face insolvency during the present slump. The New York-listed company said there was a “very high risk” it would default on its loan agreements.
The announcement sent shares in Britannia, which operates 60 to 70 vessels, down 85.8 per cent to $0.27. The company was hoping for an agreement with its lenders to restructure its debt but if it failed would consider liquidation, seeking protection from lenders or other protection under bankruptcy laws.
In a statement, the company said: “In either case... it is unlikely that the company’s shareholders would realise much, if any, value.”
The company only listed its shares in June, at $15 a share, valuing its equity at $404m.
Britannia is one of many operators of ships for carrying products such as coal, wheat and iron ore which is facing difficulties because of a fall in short-term cargoes and charter rates. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures short-term charter rates, has fallen 91.7 per cent from its peak on May 20.
Industrial Carriers of Ukraine, a large private company, has already been forced into insolvency by the crisis.
Some owners are also struggling to pay for vessels they had chartered at high rates hoping to charter them on for still more.
Britannia attributed its problems mainly to its activities in the forward freight agreements market, which acts as a hedge against future shipping costs and hedges for the costs of its fuel, known as bunker fuel.
The company had normally bought FFAs only as a hedge for specific work in which its ships were engaged. Since July, however, it appeared that because some FFAs had not been bought to hedge specific positions, the company had been more exposed to falling freight rates and difficult market conditions than it would normally have experienced, it said.
Its hedges for the cost of bunker fuel, meanwhile, were for a far higher price level than the one prevailing since the oil price fell.
An additional problem is that the covenants for a $170m loan the company took out in July set a minimum value for the ships against which it was secured. The vessels involved are now expected to be revalued, which means that the company would have to put up additional collateral.
Baltic Dry Index Drops Below 1,000 for First Time in Six Years
By Alistair Holloway
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, the benchmark for commodity shipping costs, fell below 1,000 for the first time in six years as the lack of credit curbed global trade and shipowners threatened to shun orders.
The index, watched by banks including UBS AG as an economic indicator, fell 66 points, or 6.3 percent, to 982 points, the lowest since Aug. 8, 2002. The gauge has dropped 89 percent this year, driving down the combined market capitalization of the 12- member Bloomberg Dry Ships Index, led by Athens-based Diana Shipping Inc., to $5.5 billion from $32 billion a year ago.
``You are getting very, very close to the cost of just crewing and running a ship,'' Richard Haines, a senior director at London-based shipbroker Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., said in an interview today. ``It can't go much lower than this without owners deciding they don't want their ships employed.''
The International Monetary Fund predicts the world's advanced economies will next year grow at the slowest pace since 1982. The Bank of England today estimated losses on asset-backed debt, corporate bonds and other securities in the U.K., U.S. and Europe had more than doubled since April to about $2.8 trillion.
Zodiac Maritime Agencies Ltd., the shipping line managed by Israel's billionaire Ofer family, said this month it may idle 20 capesize ships, which typically haul coal and iron ore. That's about 5 percent of the fleet operating in the spot market.
Shipowners are also slowing down vessels to cut fuel costs. The average capesize is sailing at 8.54 knots, down from 10.33 knots in July. Capesizes are attracting rates of $7,340 a day, close to daily operating expenses of about $6,000, according to Henrik With, a shipping analyst at DnB NOR Markets ASA in Oslo. Daily rates for smaller panamaxes fell 8.1 percent to $6,413.
Failing Shippers
Fearnley Fonds ASA, an investment bank specialized in shipping, energy and oil services, expects ``significant'' numbers of commodity shippers to fail within two years. Industrial Carriers Inc., a Ukrainian operator of about 55 vessels, filed for bankruptcy protection this month.
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, fell 4 basis points today to 3.47 percent for three-month loans, the British Bankers' Association said. It was the 12th straight drop.
The three-month Libor for dollars remains 197 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target rate for overnight loans of 1.5 percent, up from 81 basis points about three months ago. At the start of the year, the spread was 43 basis points.
Credit markets began seizing up after BNP Paribas SA halted withdrawals on three funds in August 2007. They froze after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed on Sept. 15.
Shipping lines are also having to contend with slowing growth in demand for most commodities. The S&P GSCI index of 24 raw materials has dropped 31 percent this month, its worst performance since at least 1970.
`Turbulent Conditions'
``Turbulent fiscal conditions have heightened uncertainty into the demand and supply outlook for all commodities,'' Citigroup Inc. analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks in Sydney said in a report.
OAO Severstal, Russia's largest steelmaker, and other producers are cutting output, sapping demand for iron ore and coking coal. The two commodities will account for about a third of the 3.2 billion metric tons of dry bulk goods shipped this year, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alistair Holloway in London at aholloway1@bloomberg.net